TENNIS IS GETTIN GOOOOOOOD, and that kinda means more hedging and squinting from me. These are some really high quality affairs with real tour implications for some of the underdogs if they're able to win. Hard to predict, and from a betting standpoint the tournament should probably be almost over for you. Once players have won a couple rounds, oddsmakers are pricing things very well, and since everyone is playing near their peak margins are very thing. Ladies first today.
Barty Rogers : Well, I owe Ash Barty an apology of sorts. The lack of aggression that I thought would be her poison against Alexandrova was adjusted well, and while she didn’t go for winners she did keep the ball extremely low over the net for the entire match in a much contrasting style to the loopy forehands that she’d employed against some of her previous opponents. She went almost exclusively crosscourt with her forehand and used the backhand slice to draw Alexandrova into the court and challenge the big hitters footwork. It worked, as Alexandrova got locked into long rallies and, despite bright points, found herself making a ton of simple errors. Her backhand left her, she was unable to convert her forehand down the line despite it being her best shot heading into this match, and her first serve all but disappeared. She was up a break and leading in both sets, but it never looked like she had a chance. When she did attempt to play a slice or an off-speed ball, Barty hit a winner every single time.
Rogers is lucky that she had the time to realize she was going to win her match. She struggled with comfort in the rallies early and when she had simple balls to end rallies she made some anxious errors, but there was plenty of time in this. Kontaveit was not sharp in this event and Rogers is playing her best. On the tour, form is most of who wins and Rogers has had a great end to 2020 and a good start to 2021. Where Alexandrova made errors, I think since Rogers plays a more conservative approach she’ll be ok. Barty is still a ridiculously difficult defensive test though, and the same extra balls she made Alexandrova play to earn errors will give Shelby trouble since this is new territory for her as far as the round of play. It’s easy to just pick Barty, but that is what I think I have to do. It was evident early in the match that although Alexandrova had the bigger offense, the amount of work she’d have to do with it would require an amazing performance. I expect Rogers to hang more in rallies, but struggle to find her way out of them. Barty in 2 close sets.
Mertens Muchova : Mertens continues to roll, dispatching Bencic in two pretty comfortable sets. Muchova had a really close match with Pliskova despite winning in straights. She was up and down a break in the first set, finding a hold late to close out. In the second Pliskova found a better gear in the rallies and went up 5-0, and then, something happened. It’s hard to say what, but outwardly it was double faults. Muchova simply hits the ball too solid and to too many open spaces for Pliskova to deal with, and as a result Pliskova never felt safe hitting normal rally balls. She went bigger than she had to, and established no rhythm. Muchova then managed to save some break points at 4-5, and from there it just seemed like Pliskova was mentally defeated. Matches between compatriots can often have funky results, and this definitely was one.
In previous rounds Muchova’s ability in the rally made her a clear favorite. Ostapenko, Pliskova, Barthel are all offensive talents, and Muchova’s defense and power just made it simple for her to win points and difficult for them to manufacture them without errors. Against Mertens, the equation changes. Mertens is very good at redirecting the ball, and won’t make really any of the errors Muchova’s previous opponents did. Muchova made some errors on her backhand wing in the last round, and struggled to hold serve. I think that will continue here, and Mertens will get one step closer returning serves as the match goes on earning her some break point chances. Mertens in 2.
Vekic Brady : Sneaky sneaky. Down and out of this one, Vekic found her best game. Vekic and Kanepi played a really high level offensive contest, with a lot of rallies being played from deep behind the baseline and with both players on the run constantly. Kanepi’s serve was a big weapon for cheap points, but Vekic’s earned her more simple balls to hit. Her power has really dragged her through this draw, and for a former title winner who has struggled to find that form again she becomes a dangerous player at this point in the tournament. Brady had a pretty easy match, but handled it the way you need to when this is the case.
Vekic is going to be the sharper player coming in. Playing Pliskova, Kanepi, and Podoroska really involves a lot of big hitting and defending. As a result, there’s a good chance that she is a bit more resilient in rallies than Brady will expect. It’s easy to get frustrated and cough up errors when your opponent is returning the ball with depth when you expect them to float up an easy one. Beating Kanepi means Vekic can win this match as well, even though Brady’s offensive ability on the forehand side and defensive ability at the baseline mean it won’t be easy. Brady is a clear favorite here for the simple reason that Vekic is not “supposed” to be here, but deep in an event it is easy to forget the past and focus on the task on court. I’m really not sure who will be more able to earn errors here, but I suspect Brady will close it out where Kanepi faltered, as she’s been improving all of last year and seems very sharp here despite having not really played a tough test. What scares me, and I’m aware I’m going back and forth, is the simple way Li ended Brady’s run the previous week. I wouldn’t feel comfortable backing Brady, but I think she should win. Brady in 3.
Pegula Svitolina : There just are no easy matches at this point, and the way I felt trepidatious about picking a winner in the last match is similar here. Pegula beat Mladenovic from start to finish. She’s really consistent from the baseline right now and continues to serve great. Svitolina had a similarly dominant win against a tough defensive test in Putintseva. Putintseva started early with the moonballs and pushmode and never got out of it. Svitolina hit her backhand clean and in a very measured fashion in this one, working the points patiently. It was a testament to her quality, but more so to her dominance against Putintseva. When you know you’re going to outlast your opponent, playing long rallies almost becomes a joy. You’re thinking while the other person is working. Pegula almost has the offense to beat Svitolina. She almost has the defense too. I don’t see a lot to separate these two, and their recent match in Abu Dhabi was won by Svitolina but in two single break sets so it’s tough to say the upset isn’t possible. Pegula seems better this week than in Abu Dhabi, with many players just kinda getting matches in at that event and not really pressing yet. I think she reverses some portion of the result, and after playing Putintseva Svitolina will take some time to adjust to someone playing actual offense. If Pegula is able to serve well, she may cause an upset, but it would be a monumental win since Svitolina is so fast, so consistent, and just won the matchup. Svitolina in 3.
I’m aware even as I write these things that it seems unfair to play both sides. “SHE MIGHT WIN, BUT ALSO SHE MIGHT LOSE!” is not a hot take, but I generally think it’s better to be honest about uncertainty and at this stage in the tournament everyone is playing so well that the margins are extra thin unless you’re Ash Barty who is the golden potato of success and shall never be doubted again long may she reign also did she get taller somehow?
Hsieh Voundrousova : Finally, the Hsieh Errani match is over. These two traded 7 straight breaks to open the match, and did not stop there. Hsieh had little to no way to end rallies against Sara’s speed, and Errani’s serve completely left her. After being up 5-2 in the final set, Errani didn’t win another game. It was a bittersweet result after being on the court for so many grinding rallies, but the better player won as far as the tournament goes. Hsieh will be better recovered for this next round against Voundrousova, and will have a better chance ot not simply being run senseless by the talented lefty. Voundrousova placed Cirstea immediately into her own personal jail cell in their match. Cirstea was in control of every rally, but Voundrousova kept the ball within a foot of the baseline on so many offerings. It looked like Cirstea would find her resolve in the second set, but all she found were more forehand errors down the line and more backhands into the net. It is a real phenomenon in tennis that when one players establishes they’re intent on hanging in the rallies forever, the other starts making mistakes. With the edges being so small, it seems that often (sadly) the player trying to play offense ends up losing. Cirstea will be back, but for now, she simply was unwilling to believe that she could tolerate the long rallies and still win the match.
Voundrousova is a much better Errani. Hsieh has great defense, and her variety will certainly make her an equal proposition against Voudrousova’s dropshot heavy offense, but I think that Voundrousova’s defending is a cut above Errani and Hsieh’s serve really faltered last round. This could close as Hsieh just beat her in Abu Dhabi, but Voundrousova is playing significantly better here and Hsieh has already been through some emotional wars. Voundrousova in 2.
Muguruza Osaka : Yay! Muguruza has been at her best here. Consistent and ultra-focused on defensive play. Diyas had not much chance. Similarly, Jabeur didn’t really have enough offense to hit through Osaka. Plot twist: no one does. Osaka has been winning majors because her mobility and defending on the baseline are something that creates no easy way to win points. She cuts off angles and plays the ball heavy and flat down the middle of the court and honestly it takes multiple shots from there to even produce the opportunity to hit the shot that got you pinned by Osaka’s return in the first place. It’s a difficult cycle, and the best path to beating Osaka right now is something that Muguruza will do, which is slowing things down and making it a shot-for-shot affair, rather than a frenzied trade at the baseline. Muguruza will look to construct points intelligently and to take time between them. The only chance (barring a blowup) that players have to beat Osaka in a major seems to be building pressure. Naomi still is prone to strings of errors when she misses a shot. There’s a general “I’d better go safe I just missed” reflex in most athletes and going safe generally means unintended deceleration on your swing which creates the next error. This is storytime though, and I don’t expect random strings of errors to net Muguruza more than a set. She’s playing her best, but I don’t expect it to beat Osaka’s best. Osaka in 2.
Sabalenka Williams : Match of the day! Sabalenka beat Li in such an impressive fashion, and I’m starting to get my hopes up that this is the year she breaks through in a major. She hits the hardest of anyone on tour, and has one of the best serves seen in a long time. The backhand down the line is a beautiful controlled swing, and the best thing about Sabalenka is that her movement doesn’t at all match her height. She covers the court beautifully, and her belief in herself isn’t deluded at all, but rooted more in a desire to compete and win. That’ll get you real far on tour, as her opponent can attest to.
Serena is one of the first players on tour to wear a catsuit, and Feliciano Lopez has been spotted in the stands eyeing the attire and stroking his nonexistent beard. Things to come, Catsuit Feli? Possibly. Serena looked her best coming into this event, and then the Potapova match happened. The same defensive struggles that she’d exhibited post-pregnancy were back, and it made me think I may have put too much emphasis on her slight bit of extra weight being tied to her errors. She’s lost the weight, but that first set was rough. On the bright side, when she had to fight at the end of the first set, she really was amazing. When she competes she gets such a singular focus it really is great to watch. The second set was better quality, as it always is when she plays. The question is, how does she neutralize Sabalenka’s offense. Serena can serve aces. She can put balls away when she has control, and she can attack second serves and break. Can she defend though? Ann Li is quick. Ann Li redirects the ball well, and attacks second serves. Ann Li is not Serena, but she was soundly beaten for two sets.
In sport sometimes (all the time) I get fooled. Sometimes Nadal looks sloppy and then comes out and rolls Novak in the French. Sometimes Federer goes 5 in the first round with the world #140 and then doesn’t drop a set the rest of the way. It’s possible that Serena was not really concerned about Potapova winning the match, and had a gameplan, and also that she will play excellent today. This is necessary though as much as it is a possibility. She’s making great strides back to her best form, but the tour has been improving during this period as well. Having a full crowd would be a huge boost to Serena as well, and it may be hard to rattle Aryna without that noise. Sabalenka in 2.
Swiatek Halep : Swiatek is just great to watch, and this is a contest that makes me happy. The WTA really is in great shape right now because honestly most of the players left in the event could win the tournament. Halep struggled against Tomljanovic but the next round she cleaned up those errors. She was aggressive and played her usual overwhelming game against Kudermetova. Kudermetova struggled in this one, and was pretty awful in the first set. She found more range in the second, but it seemed like she really was in a nightmare of errors and Halep’s pressure never allowed her to really have a moment to put things back together. Iga and Halep is a close match, because while Iga is likely to be the future, her best results have been on clay. She had a great run on hardcourt in the AO a few years back, but that was prior to her injury and she has struggled since then. Halep is hard to predict. The bookmakers have lent a helping hand here by making this match a pickem. Normally I’d say that points towards Swiatek but she’s such a recent major winner that her name is a big market. I would say that in this case, the pickem line is a real indicator of the tightness of this contest. Swiatek should start winning this match at some point in the future, but is it now? Halep was sharp against Kudermetova but had trouble when Kudermetova started to keep the ball in the court. I think it’ll be tough for Iga to score, and her errors will keep this close. I stil like her upside, and think Halep will play her into form at some point even if she struggles early. Swiatek in 3.
Djokovic Raonic : What in the fudge was that Fritz Novak match. After acquitting himself nicely in the first two sets, Fritz seemed on his way to a respectable L. I began to think that maybe Novak bought some stock in the USTA as he’d spent two rounds playing friendly with Tiafoe and Fritz. The the weirdness happened. Novak suddenly couldn’t hit the court. Simple balls, he hit almost predictably into the net. He had slow volleys into the open court and hit the net. He began guessing on all of Fritz shots and chose wrong on all of them. He double faulted. Something was wrong after a fall in the third set, and he spent a lot of time twisting and flexing, which made me think it was some residual neck or back stiffness. He would later tell the media he tore a muscle on his right side, but he’s struggled with back and neck issues in the past.
Down 2 sets to 1 against Novak Djokovic, Taylor Fritz was listed as even odds to win the match. You will never see anyone down 2 sets to 1 and even to win the match against a market like Djokovic, except Nadal at the French possibly. For a random 250 level guy like Fritz to be so was a clear indication that Novak’s physical hinderance was a nail in the coffin. Then the magic happened. The match was suspended while they asked the crowd to leave the stadium. Sure they warned the players they’d be taking a pause to clear everyone out. Sure they kinda made sense by sending them off-court so the crowd would know they weren’t going to continue play until they left. But wow did Novak return to the court almost completely recovered as far as his play and movement. They said Novak was not allowed to receive any medical treatment during the break. So what happened? Did whatever painkillers he took kick in? It is unlikely that he’d be able to compete as well as he did with a serious back/muscle issue even with painkillers. The stiffness and sharpness of pain generally remains. Did the muscle relaxers kick in? That’s a possibility. Did he stretch and miraculously recover? Unlikely, as he wasn’t really working on any stretching or rehabilitation work during changeovers and breaks. I’m not complaining, but the break came as he was pretty much completely finished, and benefitted him greatly as he was able to physically compete when they came back. What was great to see actual as Novak went crippled godmode and roped the ball down both lines over and over on every shot was Fritz competing so hard and playing such good defense. He is a mush and it was great to see him finally fight his way to his best level. Both him and Tiafoe benefitted greatly from their time on the court with one of the best players of all time.
The question now, and there are nothing but questions, is how will he recover to play Raonic. The odds have opened at -190 +160 for Novak/Milos, and this is a pretty clear indication that they either don’t expect the match to happen, or expect it to happen with Novak in a pretty hampered form. Within the match, I can see how Novak might want to play through and see what treatment was available. If it’s the same story going in though, and with many rounds left to play, I don’t see his team allowing him to play and risking furthering the injury. This is likely going to be a Raonic win, and the only caveat is that Djokovic has been injured, completely finished, and obviously going to lose in many situations and tournaments already. He has found miraculous 3rd set comebacks and as many pointed out in the 4th set while he looked sunk “he’s always like this, haven’t you learned?” I’ve learned that I cannot learn. Raonic, who is currently dressed like a guy who stole an old lady’s clothes off her clothesline because he wound up trapped outside naked in a bad comedy movie, by forfeit.
Lajovic Zverev : Hmm. Lajovic was struggling to gain control of points against Martinez, and eventually decided on outlasting him as a strategy. It worked, as Martinez played a number of lovely points but couldn’t find his way out of rallies. A great result for him, and since clay is his best surface this is just a super bonus that allows him to stay on tour all year. Zverev never really struggled against Mannarino. Mannarino was laughing to his team about the height of Zverev’s serve, and he was wholly overwhelmed by the power. It’s hard to say it, but Zverev is starting to look dominant against a lot of the tour in these 3/5 situations. He also won back to back tournaments towards the end of last year, and made the finals of a major. He is a spindly dillhole, but he’s good at the tennis. Lajovic is a step up from Mannarino in terms of ballstriking, but is a similar level of ineffective at hitting outright winners. I’m underthinking this, but Lajovic doesn’t have a clear way to win other than “hang in rallies and hope for errors or fatigue.” Zverev in 3.
Thiem Dimitrov : Well shoot. Thiem and Kyrgios was a classic. The crowd was almost exhausted themselves by the 5th set, and the announcers were excited as well. Thiem looked rattled by the crowd for at least half of this match, and didn’t hit the ball well for those portions. The crowd was loud, and Kyrgios was solid. There is something aggravating about imploring the crowd to make noise and celebrate, and then employing the best friend tactics by saying “too good” to the guy you are actively trying to mess with. The fake underhand serve directly into the normal service motion is one of those things that, while not illegal, is a grimey move. Kyrgios is a classic attention-seeker though, so he can’t help trying to play both sides. “I need them to like me, but I also want you to like me” is the vibe regarding the crowd/box and his opponent.
That aside, and his usual immediate non-sequitur bitching to the umpire whenever the tennis doesn’t go his way, he played a good match. He lost because, well, he doesn’t often play good matches. The same way Kokkinakis lost because he couldn’t physically compete by the 5th set, Kyrgios lost because he hasn’t played enough serious tennis to believe that he could hang in rallies. Fatigue is obviously a factor as well, but for a guy who moves as well as he does, training can eclipse that kind of fatigue. He could have won majors if he took it seriously, but he’ll still be a great entertainer and I’ll admit he does cringey things but I do enjoy watching a bit of drama. As it stands these guys have passed him by, and Thiem’s silent comeback was well deserved as he dealt with nonstop cheering of his errors and faults and heckling and Kyrgios even did his own passive-aggressive brand of trash-talking. I would point to the same premature celebration that Tiafoe had as an issue here with Kyrgios as well. There were so many big points for him that it seemed at times he was emotionally drained and looking to drum up crowd support or things to take issue with so he could compete. You gotta manage your physical reserves as well as your emotional ones, and he was in it for a sprint not for a marathon.
Dimitrov was scary good for a set against PCB, who had to retire with an abdominal issue. I really have not seen anything from Dimitrov so far that says he can’t win this match. He’s serving incredibly well, smoking his backhand, and he seems focused. The problem is now that he’s playing a guy who’s very similar but with more experience winning at this stage, a better backhand, and more power in general. This is a shootout that Dimitrov will need Thiem to start slow in to have a chance. Thiem’s defending is just as good if not better than Dimitrov’s, and while people think both are cute, Thiem’s instagram comments include significantly more marriage proposals and demands to “treat me like a baby otter and hold me while i sleep” (I counted two of these it must be a thing). Dimitrov’s serving is a bit better than Thiem’s right now. Thiem’s 5 setter makes him significantly more fatigued than Dimitrov, but his training is such that he’ll likely be at his best for some large chunk of this. Thiem can often be a slow starter, which gives the Dimitrov we saw early against PCB a shot, but producing that sort of winning tennis across a match will be Dimitrov’s biggest challenge in quite some time. I’m not comfortable backing Thiem to achieve any specific result here, but it’s hard to say he shouldn’t win. Thiem in 4-5.
Auger-Aliassime Karatsev : Auger-Aliassime got a nice gift from Shapo, who found errors late in sets over and over. Shapovalov was feeling pressure, and the look on his face made it seem like he always was fighting the “WHAT IF YOU LOST” thoughts that had to have been flying through his spacious head at a rapid rate. That brings up a very interesting clash against a guy who played the best match of offensive tennis I have seen since watching the tour. If you can find a replay, watch the Karatsev Schwartzman match. Aslan Karatsev hit 50 winners in 3 sets, and there was not a single point when he did not simply outclass Diego. He faced break points and served ace after ace, and when he had a ball to hit or the open court, he smoked it right past Diego. It is extremely rare that Schwartzman doesn’t get his racquet on the ball, and the offense Karatsev produced was surprising even after watching him produce it. I can’t say enough about how well he’s playing, and Gerasimov’s relative surrender makes a lot more sense now.
FAA is a different test than Diego, but wow have the odds for this one plummeted. After opening at -274, FAA now sits at -180. This means huge amounts of money are pouring in on Karatsev. So can he win? Sure, and in a 2/3 structure I think he is a favorite, but the 3/5 and FAA’s current form and coming off an easy win against Shapo makes this interesting. Karatsev’s level against Diego can beat anyone. I really mean that. There is a level of offense where the opponent does not matter. The issue here is that FAA brings his own offense in, and since Diego was unable to really get deep into rallies with Karatsev, We haven’t really seen his stamina tested. If FAA is able to win a set, that’s an extra set of offense Karatsev needs. If FAA is able to return serve well, these are extra balls that Karatsev has to play. He is in no way suspect, and it isn’t likely after 3 rounds of immaculate play that his offense will just disappear, but we haven’t seen the errors that have populated his play in the past yet. FAA is fast and deals well with power. This is a completely even match in my head, which says a ton about Karatsev. FAA struggling with Gerasimov last week is a similar thing to what might happen here. For bettors though, after a line move like that, you’re kinda getting in late if you’re backing Karatsev to win outright, and major line movements don’t always mean you’re right. Often the public is quick to jump on a “LOCK!” and everyone floods their money in as if they know something the book doesn’t. I actually felt that FAA opening at the same price as Diego was somewhat interesting, and I don’t often see that with a surging underdog on tour. Generally you’ll see a -274 +224, -200 +170, -160 +140 gradual type regression. Still, interesting numbers aside, this is a close match because Karatsev is relatively fresh, and Schwartzman is the best outside the big 3 at deflating offensive talents. I think he gets the job done here unless we see a huge regression to the mean. The problem will really be breaking FAA’s serve, since lower ranked player tend not to be the most adept returners and FAA is a wayyyyyy better server and offensive player than Diego. Karatsev in 5 if his stamina holds up.
Rublev Ruud : Rublev just keeps rolling. Lopez’ serve was negated, and with a very winnable match here against Ruud, the Rublev Medvedev clash seems likely. Ruud struggled but found the win against Albot. It took a really long time and a ton of rallies. Rallies that Rublev will end. Rublev in 3.
McDonald Medvedev : Great run for McDonald. It’s gotta end sometime though, and this will be a fun contest since he’s so solid and aggressive from the baseline, but Medvedev is just a defender you can’t hit through. I thought Krajinovic had a chance after watching the early parts of the first set, because simply put, the guy trains with Djokovic and is one of the best counterpunchers on the baseline that the tour has. He’s perfect to play against Medvedev. Medvedev blinked too, but his serve is just too big a weapon for him to lose these difficult matches. As it gets late, he gets the easier holds. He will against Mackie also. Medvedev in 3.
Tsitsipas Berretini : Cover me I’m going in. Tsitsipas backed up his struggle against Kokkinakis with a sound dispatching of Ymer. It reminded me of the Mutombo “uh uh uh” finger wagging. Just because the guy struggles at times under pressure doesn’t mean he’s prone to upsets. A great win to get back on track, and he’ll need it as Berretini is playing great ball. There were two weapons in the Khachanov Berretini match. Berretini’s forehand, and Berretini’s dropshots. This combo makes it so incredibly difficult to defend once Berretini gets inside the baseline. He doesn’t hit the bailout “I want the rally to end” dropshots that others on tour do, they are really well done and generally go untouched. The forehand is crazy. He hits the ball so fast that Khachanov who is a great defender really looked in desperation mode. He spent a lot of time just redirecting the ball and it was a good strategy but he didn’t end up with clear ways to win points. When it came time for tiebreakers, Berretini just played better. Khachanov had netcords fly past him when he was in positon for a volley, and just really everything that could go bad did. Still, Berretini’s play was backed up even better by how well he served at times. When he had a set point, he served an ace. Simple, effective.
I liked what I saw from Berretini enough that I disagree with the -380 price tag of Tsitsipas. I’m not sure how Tsitsipas will fare against a significant offensive talent, and although Berretini’s backhand is a huge liability, his ability to get it low may give Tsitsipas ample opportunity to make backhand errors. What I think the trouble here for Tsitsipas may prove to be is the same as Khachanov faced. As the sets get deep, it starts to be clear that Berretini is going to play his offense on all the big points, and it can take the racquet out of your hands. It’s rare on tour for such a great server to also have a huge forehand, and Berretini is not really going to be uncomfortable with his opponent or with the situation. These two have played a number of times, with Tsitsipas dominating their past matches and Berretini winning the most recent one (although it was a UTR exhibition). Tsitsipas has had similar clashes against servers wind up deep, and although he has a bright future, and can play a perfect set of tennis, this is not a dominant matchup, but a shootout. Picture Berretini getting to the same 5th set against Tsitsipas. Do you see Tsitsipas pulling it off? Will Berretini be exhausted? Will he struggle to win rallies once he gets control? I’ve overestimated his chances before against guys like Federer and Nadal, but I don’t think Tsitsipas is there just yet. If, on the other hand, Tsitsipas is able to dispatch Berretini in a simple manner, then he has a real chance to defeat Fognini in the next round. I’m leaning into the upset. Berretini in 4.
Fognini Nadal : I wanna say it and so do you. This is not the guy who you want to see playing Nadal. De Minaur was in full “I wanna go fast!” mode against Fognini. He kept playing the ball back quickly and down the middle and he kept waiting to get rewarded by Fognini errors. They came, but not on the break points, and Fognini proved that his wins against Caruso and Herbert were not flukes and that when he’s focused he can win. Although bookmakers lines are prices for expected investment, not lines, De Minaur was sat at -500 against Fognini and Nadal is only -600. Nadal is the largest market in tennis year after year. People feel extremely comfortable in backing him at absurd prices because, simply put, he is a machine. He plays every single point well, and he gets better as a match goes on without starting it at a mediocre level. Fognini may not be a winner here, but he has earned some significant respect by only sitting at +450 (or whatever the devilish books have gouged +600 down to on your site). There is a good reason for the somewhat careful price. Fognini is rarely motivated, but has turned in some of his best performances against Nadal. Nadal is probably the greatest competitor we have seen (RIP my inbox), but these are very fast courts and he did have some woes against Norrie. If you’ve read my articles in the past, you know I very admittedly fall for Nadal’s slumps and Federer’s, and bet against them once per event. Is this that round?
Fognini hitting through De Minaur means, despite his early errors, that he is cranking the ball at a solid pace, and defending well. His backhand is solid, and his forehand is easy power. He is supremely skillful, and he can make a game of it with Nadal. Downsides are clear. Nadal happens to be Nadal. Fognini is a child inside a conceited man’s body, and gives up when things don’t go his way. He is inconsistent, and his carefree play means he will make errors in spots where he shouldn’t. I’d be wary of backing Nadal here, but he should still win. Nadal in 4-5 (RIP my second super secret inbox).

These are excerpts from a few private QAnon group chats that I observe. I originally posted these on the megathread. They're listed roughly in the order the comments were made, immediately following the inauguration ceremony and through the next day. I made significant effort to vet that these comments are not from trolls or bots. You can really see the narrative-building in action throughout these comments.
Pt. 1 (1/20 afternoon)

We’re are all the mass arrests? Oh my gosh I’ve wasted so much time in rabbit holes and nothing to show for it but making me look like a complete idiot. I am livid and sad today.

Aren't we supposed to have faith? I have a hard time believing that Sidney Powell and Gulliani have played their reputations on the line and General Flynn knows what comes next if they don't move. But remember, the military is in charge

Can’t believe all that never really listened or believed... pathetic behavior of so called patriots... giving up now means you never believed to begin with.. you hoped.

What if president Trump was part of it.... they tricked us

So I have listen to what was said and how this was a plan to take back our country and Trump would be our President and not Biden. So nothing has happened and Biden is President now. There was talk about the Military would take care of this and nothing is happening. I think that Q was BULLSHIT and hasn't been heard from for months. So we are ALL fucked and we will be labeled as traitors . Good luck with the Q BS

This is where we find the real patriots from the band wagon patriots. Faith. Have faith. hold the line

its not over until its over, waiting on the EBS, who is with me?

I refuse to believe that Trump would walk away and leave us with all these injustices. He knows of all their crimes. I’m sure there has to be some kind of military plan we don’t know about. I’m not gonna say hold the line but I am going to say pray.

Don't you all think this has been a way the ds kept Trump supporters and conservatives suppressed and away from standing up and worse to compile a list of all so called dissenters??

I have not lost hope.. I have followed a for more then 2 years.. will not lose faith.. even if arrests dont happen I will always have faith in the American Patriots in our country :flag_us::flag_us::purple_heart::purple_heart:

I never said I knew the layout for the day I only know the fight isn't over. DJT said the best is yet to come yesterday. I have faith. I am a true patriot. I will never run. I fear no evil.

I have one more ounce of hope. Mike pompeo came on to do his final address on national tv at exactly 1:21 yesterday.

I'm disappointed that codemonkeyz seems to have thrown in the towel and is working on "something" that he's going to try to sell, but i must be crazy....i still have faith! i've lost friendships, my own husband thinks i'm bonkers, so i'm dug in now. God wins, no matter what, so i'll continue to be kooky until it's the end

I have faith but now my husband has lost it threatening to live or just shoot his self

I'm willing to lay my life down for my children and grand children's freedom. But we've been lied to for so long. I can't be the only one answering texts right now from the ones who doubted us to begin with.

they are getting away arrest them now

People the military is in control now. It might take them a couple of months to get all the perps,but it's coming people, it's coming!!!

They are all in cars. Going to detention center?

Well this offically is my last day in the group i have followed this for over 3 years to be slapped in the face with the reality that i am crazy and this was all bullshit.

Look.. is Q a joke on us Patriots ? I think we are all Q.. a family of Q.. whether or not Q was created by Dems.. Q brought us Patriots all together.. helped us to find faith.. showed us we weren't alone.. gave us extended family.. if Dems created Q it backfired on them.. I for one am proud of my "family" :blush::flag_us::purple_heart:

I am not trying to be negative I still have the faith but as far as holding the line I don't know supposedly have Chinese military men sitting on the border of Canada and the United States and Mexico and the United States just waiting for buying to take office to infiltrate our country makes no sense to me I just never dreamed in a million years that all these people that we followed and believed would desert us the way they have no no nothing no communication what are we supposed to do let China come in and take a take over our country commonly in Harris's already said that we need to take our they need to take our children from us and re-educate them in camps why has FEMA set up camps

Really??? Being a Patriot and believing in Trump. But being lied to by Q, watching your election stolen, all 3 branches lost. They will undo everything we fought for and we can't stop them. So if I am PO'd with others we are allowed to vent and yell if we must.

This movie sucked. I want my money back. Im afraid to watch the credits

Just like a death, it will take time to recover. I knew our politics was LOST. I put so much hope in this Q stuff. Now it has let me down. Sorry if I feel hopeless unless we go to war

When things fall in place and happens like we were told.. how many that are calling it quits, bashing the information you were given... will be claiming that you knew it would happen all along? Can kind of understand how Jesus must of felt on the cross and just a very few were left there still believing....

Where's Q, E, Flynn, Juan O seven, Charlie Ward, Simon Parkes, Sydney Powell, Lynn Woods, Pompeo, Trump, Mike Lidell, Rudy? Anybody making statements on 4 years of playing dungeons and dragons???

Let's wait in 3 days and see what happens. Jesus rose again in three days.

This is how i feel. . . If Things were not to go as planned (trust the plan) Trump or Pompeo or Gen Flynn, or SOMEONE like them, would say to the MILLIONS of us "ok guys, stop the nonsense, it's over" BUT, they have not. They have continued to say, "it is not over" so I still have faith in the plan.

I was bothered by the fact that the video of DJ and Melania getting off the plane was shot blurry and from so far away. Also they were wearing masks which I thought was strange.

You guys have become like an AA group or something for me. My family won't speak to me, my friends now think I'm nuts. The media is calling us terrorists....Jesus, let's see some resolution before it gets irreparable.

My internet keeps glitching, and every time I get excited thinking its transitioning to the EBS

Pt.2 1/20 evening

I just dumped genhyten channel.... EBS. ... then... "remember something might go wrong".... then 45 min.... Ummmm.... ain't buying it.... something might go wrong.. yeah.. .I bet it does and no EBS coming.

What about the fact they swore in the fake joe Biden. I thought the other one with the bum chin would show up to get sworn in. I always figured this dumber joe was just to take a bullet.

Military took control once Biden went through the act of swearing in. Once the constitution was violated by participating and accepting a fraudulent election, the military took over the reigns without needing to do it with a coup.

I have nothing to watch on TV anymore. I can't watch the news. They lie. I cant watch sitcoms and movies because I know the lies and satanism of Hollywood. I can't watch Baseball because they support BLM and the false narrative. NO NFL period. Alot is changing for me.

Trump has said so many encouraging things just in the last couple of days, short of telling us exactly when he will be back.

Nothing Biden does to revoke any orders, to put any new laws in place... none of it will be legal. That’s why the military had their backs facing as he drove by. That’s why he didn’t have the presidential plane pick him up. They know it’s not legit.

Exactly! That inauguration was just sad...fake happy KH is the only one who looked like she was ready to party..

I have heard something about Trump being officially our president again March 4, because it takes 30-45 days I’ve heard this in a few places over the last month or two.

He had to step aside so the Military can take over. Otherwise, he would he accused of using the military to stage a coup

I found out with the oath, he actually didn't say it all. He skipped most of the oath and was sworn in at least 10 minutes before the inauguration was supposed to happen, meaning Trump was still president!!

wouldnt it be funny if we keep waiting for the next milestone and voila, its 2024 that would suck

I have to admit, I don’t understand what people mean when they say we are watching a movie.

I did not let my kids go to school today(even though its only virtual only since they are closed for covid) bc I just knew they were going to teach them about it today after yesterday in my daughters 2nd grade class they made her watch their acceptance speech. So they learned from me today. Its so horrible we are having to protect our kids from school!!

I can wait till jan 27th at 306 pm (second marker) can you. I have hope in all this .

So does the corporation dissolve at midnight?

Going down tomorrow to unregister to vote. Doesn't "F"ing matter anymore they've made that perfectly clear. Q was a psyop the whole time...

Hey all you left over Q nut jobs...where were all of these mass arrests at today? Where were the Marshals Service out making all these arrests of the Clinton’s and Obama and others? Where is the martial law that was supposed to have kicked in with the 20,000 National Guard troops at the inauguration? You delusional fucks have been preaching that shit for the last 6 months. So what happened??? Could it be that “Q” was actually wrong? Or could it be that you are all just bat shit crazy?

Okay, well, I'm guessing that you haven't figured out that the real "Q" isn't online. In fact, the real "Q" is Military Intelligence and is never online. I'm guessing you also haven't figured out that Social Media sites like this one are full of leftist shills posing as Trump supporters. Their task: to make us look as stupid and crazy as they can in order to discredit us so that we can be more easily demonized. It's a tactic straight out of the leftist handbook. Anyway, now you know.

I have a feeling this is not over yet. Something in my gut.... I'm holding onto the hopes that the military is going to let the new administration run amok until the March 4th real inauguration day.. How much more dirt will pile up on these guys when they think they got the keys to the kingdom..

Looks like everything is right on schedule. Insurrection act is in effect. Flynn is in charge. USA Inc dissolved. Hold on a little longer. March 4th will be our day. I hate promised dates as much as you do but this will all be over soon.

The wrinkled flags with the gold hair around them for the speech, was a farewell speech to the american corporation, we will be back was our signal to hang in there its almost over. Because when he comes up we will have our America without the corporation and he will be sworn in as the 19th president of America the country before it fell to the global corporation. The election fraud is significant and will be overturned. The PRE RECORDED INAUGURATION was aired at 7am in spain which is 1am in Washington D.C is district of colombia(NOT USA SOIL) in which the gates with the locks on the outside of the fence are a signal of no ones leaving. President Trump is still the president, hes just letting his best friends named the military handle this one. Best is yet to come, is we are getting our republic that we fought for in 1776 BACK. Not the globalist Corporation we needed because of debt. JUST HANG IN THERE AND BLOCK THE FUCKIN TROLLS. There was no flag flying because there is NO ACTING PRESIDENT, FEMA leaders are president and vice president while the swamp is drained.

I had to calm down.....x22 and the Marshall report made it clearer to me. Never doubted my President, but I didn’t understand the complexities.....I’m in awe of Donald Trump🇺🇸

Have faith in the Plan...look it up...the District of Columbia is a Sovereign State owned by the Vatican which is in the process of having it"s assets stripped. There will be a new capital of the US of A and Trump will be the Overlord or King...to be decided. Biden is just the President of the Corporation...hold the line and stick to the Plan...no violence :flag_gb::flag_gb:

Type in antifa. Com like on Google and it redirects you to the White House

Barbara only communist sympathizers are on fascistbook 🤡

Were at war people All you scum mfs who let that shit in our country fk u forever fk u i stand for the people whos sacrificed whos died from fighting the very thing u mfs let in fk u foever people like bon jovi garth brooks fk u come around me you fking socialist scum fk u u just steped on the very people whos sacrificed for our freedoms fk u We are not backing down its inly gonna get fking worse people died for me ill die for them

Pt. 3, 1/21

I just watched Simons video today. Its reassuring that they WERE planning on arresting all of them on inaguration, but very upsetting that they are threating the lives of hundreds, to maybe up to thousands of people just to not get arrested. I cant wait for the military to fix the problem, find a bomb maybe, get around their threat and kill these satanist, terrorist, pedophilic, group of people. The day i see them all get executed will be the best day of my life. They threaten america, they are going to die.

The democrats threatened the military so they wouldnt arrest them. Peoples lives are at stake. Thats why they arrent moving in to arrest them yet.

May have gotten a little drunk last night and stayed up until 3:30 a.m. seemed to be a popular idea though.... I am usually in bed by 8 or 9 p.m. but the day seemed to call for some " think in drink in " anyone else? The guy at the liquor store said that everyone seemed to be doing the same thing yesterday.....
Q has done more to put Biden in office than all the other leftist groups combined.

Not believing in Q or WWG1WGA is like the Catholic Church not wanting peasants to know how to read.

Anyone else notice the hunger games dresses all the women were wearing yesterday? Symbolism will be their downfall. I need to watch that movie again.

i just want the EBS to kick in, that is all i dont care when, but just kick in

I think right now we all have to keep this between us for a while longer. It will unfold soon enough. Think of it as a delicious secret.

Folks all I know is, this is the BESTEST GROUP I have ever been in bar none. I've been in groups from AOL,YAHOO, and others and the diversity of people and the comments makes for a tight knit group, which I love to come into and express my opinions and listen to yours. I love you all!!!:heart::heart::heart:

I bet those 50,000 people are feeling the impact of this military fake goverment. It’s such a HUGE ELABORATE plan that the job loss and the military family threats is all part of the storm. How long! How long will this go on! I’m asking genuine questions. Does Biden have that power LR. the military. It’s one or the other. Can’t be both!

Red 4,5,6 didn’t happen! Total BS. When someone tells you to Hold the Line, they’re saying STFU, stay home, and do what you’re told, or else! Sorry, I never bought the Q BS. 26 years military told me you never tell the enemy anything publicly, and disinformation, although smart, what Q and Dave told us was to give us false hope and demoralize us. Folks, if you watch Newsmax, OAN, and read Epoch Times you will be much more informed. You know why the conservative news isn’t talking about Q and X22? Because they would lose their fan base. Die hard conservatives who are hooked on Q and X22 don’t wanna hear negativity, but are now pissed they got played! Thank your CIA for that. Now use that anger and let ’s do stuff to take our country back!

I really don’t like not hearing from President Trump. The best part about COVID was seeing him talk every night. You know, in the beginning.

Can anyone tell me why the military is now breaking down equipment, fencing, and troops being transported out of DC? I ask because I thought they were supposed to be in charge now. My son's company is returning to Ft Andrews

What happen to Sydney Powell. She fell off the face of earth.

I'm guessing Sydney Powell is sitting quietly in the wings, seeing as she is a military lawyer

Gonna sign off today. I still have faith in The Plan. I did NOT see a defeated man step on or off of that plane. Hope that you all find some peace. Im going to eat some POPCORN!!!

I think inauguration was possible cgi. For some reason Jill B shoes were tan then a bit later they were teal and then a bit later they were tan again. Strange

I spent a good bit of time this morning adding a dislike to every Biden video I could find on yt

Everybody should (gently) troll FB group “the other 98%” Debunk all their propaganda post with facts that expose the fake news. Maybe we can wake up a few of the sleepers!

So yall say to fill tubs. We have grinder pumps. Without power the fill up what do we do then??

While everyone is listening to that Hunter video thumbs down all the white house vids there aren't many! Keep disliking them its easy we can do that from home we are in and out of these vids all day

So who saw the satanic ritual video floating about with Trump at the end saying he was part of the club but he got out. I thought nobody got out alive?

Soooo ok the military is drawing down in DC. So yes its over. So what lies you all selling today

I learned that following any of these X22, Simon Parks, Charlie wood etc .. they have good content that can make sense but why on earth would anything they are predicting come true? They are openly talking on platforms that anyone n everyone can access. Trump, MIlitary, Top notch strategy intel won’t be shared publicly in any way shape or form! They are good at decoding Q that’s it. The rest of their time lines are BS

What matters is that Biden is on House Arrest in the White House and is under investigation. Him, Pelosi, and all involved will fall. The swamp will be drained, hopefully..peacefully, otherwise the military will restore order. I however am full of rage I would love to unleash, but watching them get a taste of their own bullshit will be just as satisfying.

If you read the Men's rd 1 write up you can skip the paragraph below and head straight to the writeups. I participate in a picking competition that runs for most of the tournaments on tour and recently u/kuklachert who runs it has set up an automated site to take it to the next level. Check it out if you're interested!
Kukla has taken the time to put together a really great and easy-to-use site to automate his tennis picking competitons. The Australian Open will be the first contest this site is public for, so if you're looking for a fun way to compete against your friends and predict tennis without losing money to shady books, check it out 🐢. Just sign up (totally free to join and compete), join the Australian Open comp, and start picking. The site automatically tracks all your results, and maintains a leaderboard. The chat (runs thru discord) is a great place to hang out while you're watching, and there are even some small cash prizes for the top 3 finishers. If you like picking tennis, or tennis, or cash, or prizes, or turtles, or turtles as prizes, or strawberries, or cookies, or tennis, then this is the site for you <3. Check it out here, and remember since it's new feedback is always welcome
Australian Open Picking Competition
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Barty Kovinic : Rust is apparently not a thing for Ashleigh Barty. The loveable nugget from Australia took an entire year off from the tour due to Covid concerns, but started off this year as she does most years, by making the finals of the inaugural event. She has looked just as good as she ever was this week, and in the spot where she was likely to stagger against Bouskova (who was playing some excellent tennis in the 2nd and 3rd set) she was able to steady herself despite visible frustration. Although she has a finals left against a peak-form Muguruza, Barty’s fitness has never come into question, and since the WTA plays the 2/3 format, she shouldn’t really struggle with fatigue in the early rounds.
Kovinic has been a really consistent performer in early rounds on tour the past season or so, and she represents a very consistent baseliner who generally beats the players she’s supposed to. Barty just doesn’t give up the easy errors though, and will be sharp following some good matches this week. In Barty’s past as well as Osaka’s and Serena’s is losing sets in early rounds of majors, but here I think she will have ample time to right the ship even if she does go down an early break. Barty in 2.
Gavrilova Sorribes Tormo : This is a tough match for both players. Gavrilova struggled with injury for a while, but despite the lopsided scores against Serena this past week she played well. There are a lot of quality baseliners on the tour so the fact that these two stand out as very consistent is a testament to how hard they work on court. Gavrilova plays a bit more offense, but hasn’t really had a ton of wins. Tormo has won a bunch of matches, but lately is starting to slump a little. Bookmakers have this as a pickem, and I agree. It’s hard to see either player really pulling away here, and so the winner will have to be decided by who plays the big points better. Gavrilova has a slightly better serve, but Tormo makes a ton of noise on every shot and it’s fairly obvious that outlasting her opponent and outworking them is her intent. If Gavrilova loses it’ll be to rust. Simple shots into the net, and offensive opportunities sent long because of Tormo’s defense pressure. If she converts these, she should win as Tormo is unlikely to deviate. Gavrilova in 3.
Krejcikova Zheng : This is one where I disagree with the line as set. Krejcikova has had one of the quietest yet best years of her career. No major buzz, no discussions of her future from announcers, but sets taken off top players and cohesive beatdowns of players for entire matches. There was a match I watched last year against I believe Azarenka where she didn’t miss a shot for an entire set. For her to be only a mild favorite against Zheng I can really only chalk up to these being somewhat unknown talents to the general betting public and to Zheng’s ranking being a touch higher. I expect Krejcikova to continue to improve, and Zheng losing to Begu in 3 last week is understandable, but that was a matchup she had won in the past so her confidence has to be a bit under duress. Krejcikova in 2.
Trevisan Alexandrova : Unstoppable force immovable object type matchup. Trevisan is slated to lose almost every match she plays but she never alters her game. She keeps the ball in play in and is able to convert big unexpected shots on her forehand when you least expect it. The sort of Nadal above the head forehand means it’s tough to tell when she’s going to go down the line. Her attitude is great and her fight is inspiring. Overall though, she’s not currently going to overwhelm too many opponents. Losing to Petkovic isn’t great, as she does give you long stretches of errors at times. Across the net from her now is also Alexandrova, who just hit through Halep the previous week and is on an absolute tear. Alexadrova is always a pretty big favorite in early rounds, and she will be here also even though Trevisan is one of my favorite new competitors. Just making gets and attacking the backhand won’t be enough here for Trevisan. Alexandrova in 2.
Sasnovich Kontaveit : “This is as good a spot for Sasnovich to beat Kontaveit as she’ll likely see on tour.” That was my first thought when I saw this matchup. Kontaveit still has a semifinals to play today against Sakkari, and given how big she hits, fatigue could be a factor. Checking their history though, Sasnovich has won all but one of their contests so I really underrated her chances in the matchup. She even beat her last year at this exact event. I did bit of scoreboard watching this week also and caught Kontaveit having a bit more trouble than she should have with Mattek-Sands. It’s a bit puzzling since Kontaveit has such a dynamic game, but Sasnovich has a good chance to take this. Sasnovich in 3.
Watson Kr. Pliskova : Heather Watson has one of the widest spectrums of play on the WTA. She’s a great server and strings together at least one finals run each year, but in between she loses in straight sets to a number of opponents. Krystina Pliskova on the other hand never really makes the big splash, but wins a lot of matches and is a pretty steady fixture on tour. This is a serving battle and in serving battles the X factor is often who moves better in rallies. Pliskova’s backhand is heavy and she plays a game similar to Delbonis where more effort goes into the shot to try to avoid the ball being redirected, but she’s a bit slow. Watson is actually quite quick for a server, and given her history of notching wins against Pliskova, and the pickem line set by bookmakers, I lean towards her having a good chance to advance here. Watson in 3.
Rogers Jones : Shelbyyyyyyyy! Rogers has really blossomed in the past year and a half, and it’s good to see her finally notching wins on tour. She’s worked hard on her fitness and it’s resulting in greater court coverage. Francesca Jones looked amazing in qualifiers, and was crushing the ball early last week against Podoroska, but it’s clear that at this stage of her career, she needs time and control of rallies to really thrive. Rogers hits a heavy ball with a less exaggerated but similar motion to Madison Keys, and the time that she takes away from her opponents will prove to be the difference here. Podoroska punished Jones by redirecting her shots and the extra quality of pace coming back was often the undoing of Jones. I think Jones has a bright future, but she’ll need some help from the draws going forward to rise up the rankings. Rogers in 2.
Martic Danilovic : I am a big Petra Martic fan, but there is something lacking from her game sometimes. She started slow against Lapko, and never really threatened against Rogers. She should win this match, but Danilovic is a promising player and she’ll make Martic work for it. Her loss last week to Greet Minnen wasn’t a great scoreline, but Danilovic broke serve a few times and Minnen really came into this even sharp. I think this goes three, and Martic will need to control the tempo of the game in order to win because this is a very tricky spot for her. Martic in 3.
Bencic Davis : Woof. Bencic really has phoned in some performances lately. She’s got the game to win tournaments but really can’t find victories a good portion of the time. A quickish loss to Cirstea doesn’t mean the end of the world since Sorana is playing great tennis, but these are matches Bencic should win. A relative gift here from the draw since Lauren Davis doesn’t really overwhelm anyone, but Bencic will need to appear and compete to make her 2-0 advantage against Davis 3-0. This is a similar matchup to Martic’s where the favorite should find a way to win but the challenger absolutely will if they struggle on offense. Bencic in 3 or it could be a long year.
Strycova Kuznetsova : Strycova lost to Mattek-Sands last week which isn’t a real problem since hardcourt isn’t her best surface and Mattek-Sands presents a unique and frustrating challenge by getting to net so often. Rushing opponents who haven’t really had a ton of matchplay is a decent plan, and it paid off. Coming into this there’s not a lot of reason to think Strycova has anything wrong, but no real reason to think she’ll dominate this matchup either. Kuznetsova started off reeling off games against Brady, but the wind slowed down her ball and she really folded in the second set. Understandable, as Brady is really a top tier opponent, but not the kind of fight that makes me think she’s going to dominate Strycova. I still expect Kuznetsova’s baseline prowess to give her a pretty good chance to win here, but that it will be close since these two know each other so well and are towards the ends of their careers. Kuznetsova in 3.
Zhu Osuigwe : Lin Zhu has not been crushing worlds on tour, but Osuigwe is not quite read for the tour. Her AO qualifying draw was the easiest one offered, but beating Buzarnescu in the finals is still a great win for her. The junior standout is going to be a big question mark in any significant stage on tour, and although her and Zhu have similar quality games at the moment, it is more likely that the junior falters here. Zhu is very consistent and I give her the tiniest edge at the moment. Zhu in 3.
Mertens Fernandez : Mertens is my favorite. This is common knowledge. I don’t believe in elfs. That would be silly. But if I did. And they lived among us. And they were adorable. And they played really skillful tennis. I’m just saying. I’m just saying.
Fernandez really has some tough draws lately, and I hope the talented junior gets more matches that are not so very unwinnable soon. She showed what she can do by beating Sloane Stephens unmercifully last week, but Sloane is just shrugging and picking up checks at this point so I would expect Fernandez to want to play some 50-100 range talent soon. Mertens is a bit too stable from the baseline and will be able to move Fernandez well. Fernandez thrives on being lefty and exposing her opponents movement, but will be at a power disadvantage here. It just seems like barring a very bad day from Mertens, that this is a bit of a bad matchup for Fernendez. Elf in 2.
Ostapenko Muchova : There are elfs and there are dwarfs. Jelena Ostapenko is a cat swatting things off a table. You do not know why she does it and she is not likely to stop. There is something very reassuring about the singular approach Ostapenko takes to tennis, and going for winners every shot has netted her some very big results, but she doesn’t bring the best attitude to the bad times. Muchova plays one of the best rounded games on tour, and I’m a bit surprised that she’s not more of a favorite. Her defending is pretty darn special at times, and I think that Ostapenko will struggle with timing since Muchova can hang with some pretty big hitting. I think Muchova’s conditioning is a bit better also. Muchova in 3.
Cocciaretto Barthel : Cocciaretto is inching up the rankings nicely, and this is a great spot for her. Barthel has some talent, but being off the tour for so long has set her back a bit and it could be a bit longer before she really starts to win matches. This is winnable as Cocciaretto isn’t just going to serve you out, but she’ll have an edge from the baseline and has to know this is a good opportunity to snag ranking points against an unsteady opponent. Cocciaretto in 2-3.
Bogdan Collins : Tough opener for Bogdan, who crushes worlds in qualifers and early rounds, but doesn’t really have the marquee victories next to her name that would make her a good option to win this contest. Collins played extra sharp last week, and had a great 2020. Her serving has sort of improved, and given Serena’s resurgence, splitting sets with her hints that Collins’ peak performance of 2020 is her new level. Bogdan is very good, but not dangerous enough to shut Danielle out of the match. Collins in 2.
Pliskova Paolini : Pliskova matches are the most random events generally. Sometimes she smokes everything without blinking and looks like she’ll win the whole tournament. Sometimes it’s obvious she doesn’t really feel like making a full effort and her opponents get close. I think the moment is what dictates her effort, and she’ll put in enough effort here to beat Paolini. Jasmine has kinda thrived lately on just sticking around in matches, and hopefully Pliskova’s team will make it clear to her that this is a player who believes they can win this match. Pliskova in 2 but if she starts missing this could take 3.
Inglis Kenin : Maddison is a nice player, and it’s great for her to get a chance in a major, but this isn’t a lucky draw at all. Kenin is a frontrunner to go deep in any hardcourt event she enters. Super emphatic walking all day. Kenin in 2.
Kanepi Sevastova : Kaia Kanepi was formerly a player who’d go deep in the 3-4 tournaments a year that she showed up to, but in recent years she’d struggled to string wins together. A brilliant run this past week is likely to continue, but she has had some shoulder injuries in the past so she’s a mild question mark in this first round. I expect to see some kinesiology tape on her, and although Sevastova is a frustrating opponent we should see Kanepi able to control the rallies. Kanepi in 2.
McHale Podoroska : Christina McHale is a good baseliner. I feel like sometimes I say everyone is that when they’re just kinda generic. The truth is none of these players are generic. Tennis is ridiculously difficult and there just aren’t a myriad number of ways to play it and win unless you’re incredibly talented or physically gifted. Everything looks like pushing when you don’t have an edge in ballstriking. Pushing won’t work here though. Podoroska looked lost on hardcourt a few months ago. She even looked to be struggling early against Jones. She looked like she was outclassed at times against Kvitova. She continues to improve though and she has a great mind for tennis. This is a straightforward match and if she isn’t pressured Podoroska moves the ball too well to lose this. Podoroska in 2.
Vekic Wang : Donna Vekic just hasn’t won matches. She has a great game and looks like she’s a threat to win the event for a set, and then she just finds herself a bit behind the pace and loses. It has to be a mental struggle to really believe she’s going to turn it around at this point, and add in that here she’s expected to win but was beaten by Wang in their only previous meeting in Acapulco. How much tennis are we really playing at an event in Acapulco? I’m not quite sure. I do know that Vekic took a set off Pironkova last week, and she’ll have ample chances to employ her offense against Wang. This is a must-win for Vekic, and I think she’ll shrug off her struggles here. Vekic in 3.
Brady Bolsova Zadoinov : Brady is a fudge brownie in a world of regular brownies. There is something so pure about the way Ernie and Bert’s human cousin approaches tennis. It is a ton of fun to watch her forehand flutter through the air, and her backhand was never great but she has made great improvements to the length she gets on it and minimizing the slice habit has been great for her results. Bolsova had a couple nice wins recently to get her back on track on tour but this is relatively unwinnable. Windy conditions are really the only thing that’s going to throw people off this week in Australia and the wind honestly benefits players like Brady who can put a lot of shape/junk on the ball. Brady in 2.
Brengle Rodionova : Brengle seems like she’s a pretty big favorite here. Rodionova is benefitting a bit from wildcards at this point in her career, and she isn’t really a big threat to beat most of the top 100. Brengle in 2.
Sherif Pacquet : Mayar Sherif is a new name but she really is an effective winner. Her best attribute is durability so far. She extends rallies and hustles and hits a solid ball which is enough against lower tier opponents. As she gets more comfortable on tour I’m sure we’ll see more of her offense, but her plan A is best against this particular opponent. Chloe Paquet has one of the best T serves on tour, and goes for it almost every time. It’s a simple motion, and it nets a lot of cheap points since she serve and volleys often. Her marathon match with Destanee Aiava though illustrated that a good defender can make things very tense. I don’t consider Sherif such a big favorite as the -300 line she’s offered at, but given she’s a good bit better than Aiava at a similar strategy so she is likely to find the finish line here. Pacquet is great, but it’s really difficult to win matches when you have to earn every point, and she will here. Sherif in 3.
Konta Juvan : Jo Konta is a tricky one to predict. She sometimes looks very solid but struggles in extended rallies with errors. Begu was in good form so her losing there isn’t a problem, but there isn’t much to take away from her win against Pera. Pera was double-faulting at a really nonstop rate, and when that’s going on players beat themselves. Kaja Juvan is a tough test here, and she’s already snagged some good names and faces on tour. Coming through qualifying at the AO and also almost snagging Swiatek last week are good steps, but beating Konta may be a cut above what she’s accomplished so far. I expect Juvan to win a set, but maybe not the match. Konta in 3.
Azarenka Pegula : This doesn’t seem fair. Azarenka was the best player in 2020 for my money but that run has to cool off a bit. Her win against Putintseva shows she’s still focused, but her withdrawal to Kontaveit lends a bit of mystery to her quality heading into this match. Pegula had a decent week almost defeating Kenin, and this will be a good quality affair since Pegula really has good energy at the baseline and a solid forehand. I think she’ll struggle to find points though if Azarenka is full strength as Vika’s defending and counterpunching is a big strength of hers. Azarenka in 2.
Aiava Stosur : Couple wildcards playing in the first round. Destanee Aiava is clearly very talented and has great defending. She extends points well and her serve is passable. I’m not really sure how much tennis training she’s doing though as she’s a tiny tiny tiny small very minimal little bit heavier than she might want to be to really compete. She’s still young and there’s no reason she has to be completely committed to tennis or train her brains out anyway, just an area I think could make a match like this a clear victory rather than a “well she should win”. Sam Stosur hasn’t really played much winning tennis the past few seasons. She’s basically retired but still enjoying the sport the way I see it. Still has a great serve, a fast forehand, and can compete a bit but I don’t really see her fistpumping and getting too excited over it. This is one where Aiava’s war with Pacquet means she is able to outlast an offensive talent, but where Stosur’s experience may make her a bit more effective with her opportunities than Pacquet. Tough to really decide, and with Azarenka or Pegula waiting in round two, this is one I’m ok getting wrong. Stosur in 2.
Hibino Sharma : Hibino has climbed the rankings nicely again after some tough relatively winless seasons. She hasn’t played since the French which is a puzzle, and she’s sat at a pickem here against Sharma who really hasn’t won a ton of matches but has played some great isolated sets of tennis. Sharma is one of the few players who took a set from Kanepi this past week and since Hibino should be a bit rusty and is generally not an overwhelming talent but more of a counterpuncher this is a good chance for Astra. Sharma in 3.
Sakkari Mladenovic : Maria Sakkari is a top 10 player for the foreseeable future. She works too hard on conditioning to be outlasted, and the more comfortable she gets on tour the fewer errors she makes. Mladenovic is on a bad slide but is too talented to ever really crash off the tour. This is a rough draw, and she’s unlikely to come up with enough offense to beat Sakkari. Sakkarin in 2.
Stephens Putintseva : Sloane Stephens is already retired, and tennis is her retirement home. I don’t begrudge an athlete who’s accomplished so much some time off, and it really makes predicting her matches a bit easier. Sloane has the talent to beat anyone and hits the ball heavy when she’s playing well. She can drag her way through a match playing poorly, but the peak peformances that netted her titles are few and far between at this point.
Putintseva has been winning when she’s supposed to, and is very solid from the baseline. She might play the most error free tennis of anyone on tour in some stretches, and she’ll be able to frustrate Stephens. Putintseva in 2.
Burel Van Uytvanck : Clara Burel is very good, but like most junior standouts much of your future on tour depends on who you draw in the first round. Against a more conservative player or even someone with a smaller offense, Burel is going to have a good shot at winning. She drew Giorgi last week though and showed that while she’s a very talented player, she can’t really counterpunch nonstop during a match. This will be the ask here as well, and as well as Van Uytvanck played last week, the only issue working against her is how quickly she imploded against Muguruza when the ball started coming back.
AVU really plays nonstop offense, and can hit herself out of matches quickly if her opponent gets the ball deep. She’ll have a much easier time holding serve than Burel though, and I think in a tiebreakelate set situation Van Uytvanck’s serving will be a big plus as well as her experience. Burel will at some point be better than AVU, it’s just not quite there yet. Close match, but AVU in 3.
Teichmann Gauff : This is kinda puzzling. These two played first round in last week’s event as well, and Gauff didn’t do anything special but never really seemed like she was in danger. It was a 3 setter, and there were momentum shifts, but it seems like Teichmann has to do an awful lot to win a point and Gauff is able to just defend and eventually overwhelm her opponents. Pushing isn’t my favorite, but it’s hard to say that Teichmann is going to turn that result around in a week. Gauff in the same 3.
Svitolina Bouzkova : There are some really tough first rounds in this section of the draw. Svitolina is always a threat to go on a tear. Her defending is second to none and her forehand is solid when she’s confident. The problem across the net is that Bouzkova brings a similar level of defending, so this is likely to come down to who makes errors when forcing offense. Bouzkova didn’t struggle much to move the ball against Barty, but she played 2 good sets and one bad one. It’ll be a similar issue here. I think she can win a set, but winding up in a third set against Svitolina and having to come up with 6 games of winners is very tough. The upset is possible, but will require a really comprehensive performance. Svitolina in 3.
Andreescu Buzarnescu : A lucky loser spot will get Buzarnescu a nice paycheck. After struggling with some knee injuries, Andreescu finally makes her return to the tour. It’s tough to know what to really expect, but Buzarnescu has struggled to win matches on hardcourt, and it’s likely that Andreescu will have ample chances to win here. It’ll be interesting to see how she’s playing after such an extended break. Andreescu in 2.
Hsieh Pironkova : Hsieh pretty much gave up against Van Uytvanck last week and was having clean winners hit off her serve. She’s a fan favorite, but hasn’t been winning matches. Pironkova on the other hand, has pretty much beaten everyone on tour she’s faced since returning. I think that run continues here. Pironokova in 2.
Flipkens V. Williams : Flipkens wins just when you think she can’t. I think this is one of those spots where she can’t. Venus Williams isn’t going to beat the top half of the tour, but she’s still a pretty adept server and if she doesn’t have to move a lot, she’s a very tough out in early rounds. Flipkens thrives on a slice-heavy game and generally nets most of her wins against overzealous youth. Venus is neither, and should have the ability to win here. I don’t agree with her -318 pricetag, but I think her price is often inflated. Williams in 3.
Wang Errani : There’s always a good chance that Wang gets the job done in straight sets. She really performs well as a favorite, and rarely wins when she isn’t. Here she has a tricky opponent in Errani. Errani wins this matchup on clay, but hardcourt leaves her a bit lacking in big weapons. Wang hits big, but lost to Paolini last week which is a similar caliber of player to Errani. Errani is coming off a qualifying run in the AO, and lost a decider this past week to an in-form Ostapenko. This is a similar opponent and I’d expect a very close match. Wang winning here puts her in good shape since she can defeat Venus in round two, but the upset isn’t out of the question since Wang was able to basically get outlasted last week. Errani in 3.
Voundrousova Peterson : Marketa managed to wake up this past week, and because of that she’s probably going to win this match. She found good length on her forehand, and when she’s in a rhythm she’s very tiring to beat. Peterson has a great ability to get to the 5-5 point in matches, but hasn’t closed them out of late. There’s nothing overpowering in her game and you kinda need that to beat Voundrousova. Voundrousova in 2.
Marino Birrell : Marino did well to qualify for the AO, and playing a wild card ranked in the 700s is a good reward. Since I know Marino is reading this, I’m picking her. Marino in 2.
Tig Cirstea : Tig is one of the toughest fighters on tour. Some might say her attitude on court is, awful. Her play reflects how hard she’s fighting though, and she acknowledged in some interviews that she gets too intense at times. She hasn’t really found her hardcourt game yet, and Cirstea really has in the past few weeks. Tig will make this a long match, but it’s Cirstea’s offense vs Cirstea’s mistakes in this one. Most pro’s win that battle when it’s availalble. Cirstea in 3.
Minnen Kvitova : Tough draw for Minnen who came out firing last week and looks to have a bright future on tour. Kvitova is occasionally caught off guard but she tends to do well in serving battles and this is one. Kvitova in 2.
Muguruza Gasparyan : Muguruza is ballin. As I’m typing this she’s struggling to find easy points against Barty, but this week she has looked at her best. Two opponents have gotten 0 games in a set against her already, and that spells trouble for Gasparyan. Muguruza’s losses on tour are usually hard to watch and she looks tentative while makes tons of simple errors. This tells me that generally the difference in her game is how much training she’s doing and how much tennis she’s playing. For now, it’s a lot of both. Gasparyan is pretty darn good and a lucky loser spot is fair since she really does belong in the main draw, but this is toooooo tough. Muguruza in 2.
Samsonova Badosa : Tough tough first round. Liudmila Samsonova sorta reminds me of Rybakina and Sabalenka. She crushes the ball on both wings, she moves well, but her breakout performances were followed by a bunch of tough draws and losses. I think many players just get a bit solved by the tour, and Samsonova will have to wait a while to really announce herself. This is a good opportunity for her, and Badosa. Badosa is one of the ball-machines currently operating on tour, and really doesn’t give much up once the rally is started. This is a classic offense vs defense matchup, and although I think Samsonova has a higher ceiling, at this point Badosa should get the job done. Badosa in 3.
Diyaz Zidansek : Zarina Diyas is a player that always seems encouraging, but doesn’t win a lot. Her speed is off the charts, but her game is really geared towards that 2017-18 stretch where there weren’t really dominant players offensively and a lot of matches were about outlasting the other player. The shoutout format is really back now, and I think Diyas has to make some adjustments. Zidansek is mostly a clay talent, but she has better options and variety than Diyas. I wonder if anyone is reading this. Diyas beat Zidansek in 2018, but hasn’t really beaten many players since. Zidansek had some nice wins against Brady and Fernandez recently, so I’d lean towards her. Zidansek in 3.
Pera Kerber : Bernarda Pera winds up in a third set pretty much every time she steps on the court, but this past week in the windy conditions her serve left her bigtime. It was frustrating to watch and she never really found the motion against Konta. I don’t expect this to improve during a match against a very offensive returner in Angelique Kerber. Kerber looked sharp on isolated points this week, and I think she’ll be able to break early and often against Pera. Kerber in 2.
Petkovic Jabeur : Petkovic hit through Trevisan which means she’s at the top of her game. The top of her game though, is at the bottom of Jabeur’s. Since Petkovic is such a great athlete, her ballstriking can make this close for a bit, but Jabeur’s serving is top level and even though she plays a bit impatient, she’s likely to close this out even if she gives up an early deficit. Jabeur in 3.
Hibi Schmiedlova : This is a good one. Hibi is on a roll stretching 5 wins in a row to start the season prior to going down to Mertens (no shame there) this week. Schmiedlova has been really solid since coming back to the tour and has pulled a couple upsets most notably besting Azarenka at the Frenchest Open. Schmiedlova is likely to be the bigger hitter here but with both coming in in decent form, this should go down to the wire. Schmiedlova in 3.
Hercog Garcia : I’m not sure why I always think Hercog is going to win, but I do. Part of the equation here is that Caroline Garcia has turned in some of the most random poor performances I’ve ever seen, and Hercog pretty much always plays well even if she doesn’t really have the weapons to beat a top defender. It’s time to stop doubting though. Garcia has won all of the previous meetings between these two, and she played ok last week. Garcia in 2.
Pavlyuchenkova Osaka : Tough first round for Osaka as Pavs isn’t really interesting in what name is across the net, but pretty winnable. Osaka can lose any match, but can win any match also and that tends to be her most frequent result of late. Osaka in 2.
Sabalenka Kuzmova : Sabalenka struggles with strange losses less and less as she matures. I think she’ll add a good number of indoor titles this year, but her outdoor game will take another year or so. Hard to pick against her here though. Sabalenka in 2.
Boulter Kasatkina : Katie Boulter snatched wiiiiiiiiiigs last week. It was really a great run (defeating Kalinskaya and Gauff) and she looked like she might even defeat Osaka. That kind of quality is necessary, as Kasatkina is pretty efficient during the rally. She doesn’t have any clear holes in her game, and generally plays error free. Her only real struggle is with opponents that have power and Boulter doesn’t really crush the ball. Expect long rallies in this and if I’m being honest I’m not sure what to expect for an outcome. Boulter had a much better week, but Kasatkina is way more established. Boulter should probably lose, but Kasatkina has had some very extended struggles in the past on hardcourt. I’m guessing, but Boulter in 3.
Cornet Savinykh : Cornet is likely to have an edge here. She’s been just average in 2021 but is a very good defender and extends rallies in a manner that new players on tour generally struggle with. She’ll likely find errors from Savinykh but admittedly she is a new commodity and I’m mostly going off her results so far. Cornet in 2 but I’ll be watching most of this one to get an idea baout Savinykh’s game.
Li Zhang : Ann Li has basically surprised everyone this week (and by everyone I mean me). I really liked her game last year, and I find that she moves the ball around the court in a very composed manner and makes good decision as to when to get in to net. I didn’t expect her to beat Cirstea though, and I think that lends itself strongly to her beating Zhang here. Zhang received a 1 and 1 beating from Muchova last week and I don’t think she’s going to turn it around her against a surging talent. Li in 2.
Riske Potapova : Alison Riske hasn’t played since last season, and it’s going to be pretty tough to figure out where her level is given how inconsistent she’s played in the past. A lot of errors and a lot of serving struggles are interspersed with rare stretches where she really lands her shots and is able to overwhelm her opponents. I’m not sure if I put Potapova’s results above hers really. Potapova is the type to win 1 round at every event she goes to, but never multiple matches. Rusty inconsistency against consistent underperforming is a tough one to figure out. I lean Potapova in 3.
Bonaventure Babos : Ysaline is a fine player, but appears on tour a bit less than is really necessary to get up the rankings. This is a good chance in terms of name of opponent, as Babos has had some bad seasons, but not in terms of timing, since Babos is playing her best and most motivated tennis in the past few weeks. Her qualifying run was impressive, and although she lost to Garcia last week she acquitted herself well. Babos in 3.
Begu Stojanovic : Begu was really the most improved player at this week’s warmup events. I don’t see a reason given her quality of play to think that she won’t play a good level this week as well. Stojanovic was pretty convincing beating Sherif, but Begu is a big step up from a defensive qualifier. Begu in two.
Siegemund Williams : Laura Siegemund has really fought nonstop, and her reward is a pretty comfortable ranking on tour for at least a year. There were times where her knee injuries looking like they’d cancel her permanently, but she really is a joy to watch when she’s playing well. This is bad timing to play Serena Williams though. There isn’t really a good time, but her mobility suffered a bit in her return last season and she seemed a bit vulnerable at times. 2021 is here though, and Serena has shed any extra weight she was carrying, and looks very sharp to start the season. It takes a lot of hard training and dieting to do what she did, and there’s reason to believe that she might be able to get that long-sought after major title this year. Her serving looked excellent this past week, and although she withdrew with a shoulder injury, high profile tennis players injury withdrawals are often more opportunistic than tragic. Williams in 2.
Swiatek Rus : Iga Swiatek isn’t really confident on hardcourt yet. A lot of junior standouts get their first real results on clay, and she’s no different. Her talent though is something that won’t really be held back for too much longer. At this point it’s a question of when, not if. Swiatek in 2.
Shvedova Giorgi : Nice to see Yaraslava back on tour,but this is a pretty tough first round. Giorgi is playing pretty well, and should take advantage of Shvedova’s rust. Giorgi in 2.
Ferro Siniakova : Popcorn time. Fiona Ferro’s hardcourt results are night and day from her clay results. During her match with Rogers last week, she basically figured out hardcourt tennis within the match, but couldn’t really stick to the plan. I would expect her team to work on that, and I think that given Siniakova’s streaky play, that Ferro will have a chance to start winning on hc here. On the other side of the fence, Siniakova has lost some matches, but has competed and won against a much higher tier of player than Ferro. She has to sit as a slight favorite, and the question here is similar to Swiatek; when will Ferro put the puzzle pieces together. I expect it to happen in this match. Ferro in 3.
Zvonareva Rybakina : This is a brilliant matchup but unfortunate for whoever loses. Zvonareva served better than she has in a while last week, and her baseline game is always very accomplished. Rybakina is really good enough to win a major already, and the real trouble is just getting through these difficult early rounds. I guess that’s a problem for everyone, but a peaking Zvonareva is a difficult test. Rybakina has to sit as a favorite, but if she starts slowly she’ll lose this match. Still, Rybakina has the talent to withstand Zvonareva’s onslaught and her serving is just as good. Rybakina in 3.
Kudermetova Kostyuk : Kudermetova has a big edge coming into this, having just defeated Kostyuk at the event in Abu Dhabi. Kostyuk has been garnering some very high prices, and is expected to really have an impact on tour soon. The trouble came for her last week with the windy conditions in Melbourne. She’s a very clean ballstriker and needs to be able to commit to her swings. This is an exceptionally tough match to call, and the match in Abu Dhabi was decided by a single break. I think Kostyuk can turn this around, but her performance against Brady wasn’t very inspiring. Someone in 3.
Gracheva Blinkova : Blinkova’s been struggling to notch wins, and Gracheva won their previous meeting. This is another very tight contest, but it’s hard to say that Gracheva doesn’t have a small edge here. Gracheva in 3.
Doi Tomljanovic : Misaki really isn’t the most dominant player but she presents a very difficult test if her opponent lacks power. Ajla Tomljanovic is a great talent but hasn’t really taken the next step on tour. It’s easy to think that her tough results on tour mean she’ll never get there, but she does play some tight matches against most opponents. I think she’ll get a boost from playing at home here, and while Doi is good for a few breaks of serve against most players, Ajla will really just need to keep errors to a minimum to get across the finish line here. Tomljanovic in 3.
Cabrera Halep : Cabrera is a good talent, but I am quite sleepy at this point, so Halep in 2.

Right then, Chapter 50. It almost sounds weird saying it and to think it hasn't even been two months yet... I'm insane for doing this. I haven't really gotten anything big planed to mark the occasion so you are gonna have to settle for the usual.
Anywho, once again Twoflower68 has been keeping up with the deranged yours truly, to try and make sense of the insanity that is my writing. Hopefully, he has managed his duties with the usual expertise.
Sapphire
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Chapter 50: Homebrew
To Tom the days were just flying by right now, so much to do and all of it rather exciting stuff. The fact they didn’t know what a weekend was simplified things a bit, even if the fact they just worked in seasons rather than months was a bit of a mind fuck for Tom. He didn’t even keep track of what day it was anymore, he didn’t feel the need. He was working every chance he got anyway so why bother.
Shiva and Jackalope had gotten to work on the distillery, it shouldn't take the smith too long to put that together. Once again Tom had convinced her that it didn't need to be pretty. She had kept true to her word of making it mostly out of steel, it was a beautiful piece of work. She just complained that she wasn’t allowed to spend the time to remove all the hammer marks and small dents. Tom just thought it added a bit to the general aesthetic. It looked like something you would find in a forest making moonshine. The important part was that every gram of saved copper could go into bearings, cables, and wires for the lathe.
The solder had been a bit problematic, they had a hard solder used for jewelry and weapons and the like. It was silver-based though so rather expensive, not to mention hard to work with.
They used lead solder for the windows, but tin was apparently really valuable and Shiva only had a tiny amount of it in storage. Luckily when Tom had cleaned out Vulzans supply of metal there had been a single bar of tin in there. Still, it would have to be used sparingly. That was a bit of a pain in the ass. Tom had hoped he wouldn’t need to use lead for too many things, but it was not to be.
The original design had called for a copper honeycomb extrusion in the reflux tube which was obviously impossible for them to make. In the end, Sapphire and Raulf had taken to soldering small hand forged strips of copperplate together. The result was something that hopefully came close even if it had cost them much of the Tin to make. It was a bit janky but it only had to cool down the vapor as it rose so he hoped it would do.
By now it was mostly up to Shiva, who got to work on the water jackets while Raulf figured out the stove for it. They only needed Tom to answer a few questions and lend a hand here and there, so he got back to work on the lathe.
He had started pulling late nights to make the progress he wanted. The time with the kids wasn’t really that productive after all. He had never been that much of an electro engineer, but he knew the basics and he had a few drawings of some dc motors with him. He hadn’t thought he would be working with electric engines this quickly though so his information was a bit limited. Still, it should not be a problem to just scale up and modify some of the stuff he had drawings for.
He did get a bit of a scolding from Esmeralda one day when she found out he had fallen asleep in the workshop instead of with the children. He was fairly sure she had gone easy on him though for some reason.
Getting Kulinger to give him some of the linseed oil they used for wood treatment had been a bit of a challenge, though the promise Tom had brought the seeds to start making it locally did win out in the end. He was betting on the hardening oil being able to act as an insulator for the coils. He had no clue if it would work but in his mind, it should. Then there was the matter of the copper wire itself.
He had no doubt he could make it thin enough and the length would just be a matter of starting with a big enough bar and drawing it out multiple times. It would just be so tedious. In the end, he found the solution in where he was the most bored during the day, guard duty.
He designed a simple rig that could be moved around that way it could be placed up on top of a tower so whoever was on guard could be cranking wire through, he was a damn genius. The idea didn’t sit well with Rachuck who argued it would be rather distracting after all. In the end, Tom had won though upon presenting Rachuck and Dakota with the math of how long it would take to make enough wire for the motor.
So that was how he had ended up with a set of plans for what should be a small 2KW electric motor and the tools to hopefully make it happen. It wouldn’t run the lathe very fast or allow him to take deep cuts, but it might just be good enough to make something better. Plans in hand he had gone to drop in on the others and lend a hand. Not to mention seeing where they had gotten to.
The still was aways from being complete but work was progressing at a brisk pace. It was actually starting to look like a still by now as the contraption stood in the center of the room. As he had begun explaining the wire drawing bench to Shiva. Sapphire had come in to grab him.
“Hey, Tom up for a little trip?”
“Uhh sure just need to show Shiva this”
“Tom you have been working day and night for over a week. You need to relax a bit”
“We went on the hunting trip, a few days ago that was timeoff. Now Shiva I have little drills, do you think”
Tom leaned over the table to show the smith the tiny holes diminishing in size. As he leaned over though he felt something move on his head?
*Thunk*
“Oh, hi Kiran. Sorry”
“But I was sleeping”
“I know, I know, I’m sorry. Look back up you go. There now, nap time continues. Anyway, so this is”
“Tom that was over a week ago, have you seen yourself in the mirror lately?”
“Not since you all decided to make me best girl for a day” Tom replied in a chuckle going back to the papers.
“You should, your eyes are red with what I presume is blood, not to mention the weird color beneath them.”
“The kids sometimes wake me up, it’s no big deal”
“No holdey I’ll pick you up in just a second”
“I’ve got something to show you” Sapphire then went.
“What is it?”
“A surprise, now come on” Sapphire grabbed him by the arm and began dragging him off. He wondered what she might have to show him, this certainly wasn’t normal for her so it must be important.
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Sapphire was glad most of the work on the big distillery thing was Shiva’s responsibility, not to mention Raulf and Wiperna being eager to lend a hand on the project. Tom's ideas to put the guards to work sat well with her too. They never did anything when on duty apart from sitting staring off into the distance anyway and it meant she didn’t have to do it.
Tom though was turning out to be seemingly addicted to the work, he just kept on coming up with more things that needed doing and he was already trying to combine jobs to save time in the day. It had almost become the norm to see him with Kiran or another kid in one hand and tools or paper in the other.
Today was no exception as she found him in the smithy. Kiran perched atop his head, Holdey trailing behind asking to be picked up as well and rolled-up parchment in his arms. The sight of Tom’s beautiful white paper getting smudged with coal dust had driven Apuma up the wall, so he had handed over what parchment he had, for Tom to use instead. While she admired the work ethic she was getting worried he was pushing a bit too hard. It almost seemed like he felt responsible for their safety following the rather disastrous encounter with the darklings.
She could understand why of course but still he shouldn’t, it was bad enough to keep Dakota from trying to save the world single-handedly. Even if Tom might actually stand a chance she doubted it could be done in weeks or months, so he might as well calm down a bit. It had nothing to do with the fact Nunuk had finally cleared her for doing a bit of flying.
It took a bit of convincing, Shiva having more questions for him didn't help, but eventually, she managed to drag him off, Jackalope following along smiling, she already knew the plan after all. He had been babbling all the way about making copper not conduct electricity. She was fairly sure he wanted copper because it did conduct that stuff, but she didn’t care. She had burnt her brain out trying to understand all those different things the world was apparently made from, so she had no desire to try and figure out what he was on about this time.
They had dropped off the kids on an unsuspecting Unkai who was washing the floors at the moment. they didn’t even make it to the end of the hall before they heard Kiran go “Tom could do it better” From behind. Sapphire wondered just how Tom achieved the status of could do no wrong with Kiran even though Tom had not even noticed the kid asleep on his head.
Dakota had been waiting with the rest of the huntress in the greeting hall. Kokashi even managed to get out of kitchen duty since Fengi got off as well and had apparently decided to tag along. Sapphire didn’t mind, it might give her someone to beat after all. She was allowed to fly, but she still wanted to go a little easy on the maneuvers. It had been far too long though since they got some training done and she was well and truly sick of being down here all day.
She had needed a bit of help to finally get the splint off her wing. Dakota examined the breakpoint, there was a little knot of bone as was expected but you could hardly see it. Sapphire had been a bit worried it might look weird but there was nothing to be seen. Finally being able to flex the fingers in her wing after so long and the feeling of being able to stretch her wings out all out the way. It was pure bliss. She walked around on the big platform flapping them around a bit testing if everything felt like it should. She hadn’t broken a wing since she was a kid so it was a little scary, but everything seemed in order. Tom apparently believed they were going on a trip as he had run off and fetched a backpack from his things strapping it on tight.
She could see how he would get that impression, they were not in armor and they hadn’t done any training since he had gotten here after all. So perhaps it was time for a little showing off even if she wasn’t ready for anything too crazy. Fengi had apparently gotten bored with Sapphire testing out the winds. She walked up to the edge and did her best stumbling impression as she fell off, making sure to scream as she fell of course
Tom predictably panicked running up to the edge. Yelling “Fengi!” As he stood there peering off he appeared to realize he had been tricked. They all had a good laugh at that one.
“Very funny, careful or I take you swimming one day” He held up an authoritative finger to them.
“And how are you planning on doing that” Jackalope retorted “we ain't the kids you know” There was a shared laugh among them. Tom though just looked at them before cracking a smile.
“This worked last time.” He went, as he just leaned over backwards. dropping off the edge. “Yahoo!!!”
They all looked at each other for a split second before the mad dash towards the edge. Sapphire was fairly sure he had snapped completely now. Why would he do that after having nearly died twice from that? The others rushed off the edge diving after the lunatic.
There was no way Sapphire was ready to try and catch him, so she just stood there dumbstruck. She hadn’t even managed to talk with him about the fact she thought he was putting too much pressure on himself and that he needed to trust them a little more. Seemed like it would be necessary though, perhaps it was the other way around in fact.
She snapped out of her little daze as Jackalope shouted out from below.
“What the fuck is that!” followed by mad cackling laughter which was clearly Tom. She walked up to the edge and looked down. Tilting her head at what she saw. There was a big green piece of cloth gliding through the sky with a laughing Tom dangling beneath it?
The others were circling around him as he slid slowly through the air. She had to see what this was about, so she stretched out her wings and let herself fall forward. She felt the air catch as she flaired her tail pulling slowly out of the dive. The wind rushing past her snout, the freedom of choosing where she was going, ohh it was good to be back.
Her moment had been spoiled a little by Tom’s stunt, still, she could hardly blame him, Fengi had started after all. She tentatively beat her wings to maintain speed from the dive to catch up. Everything felt good so far. He wasn’t going very fast so she didn’t need to strain too hard to catch up. in fact, he was going so slowly they all had to circle around him unless they wanted to try and hover beside him.
“What is that” She demanded when managed to catch up
“Parachute! You should have seen your faces!” He shouted back, cracking another laugh at their expense.
“Well, the last few times you have fallen off it didn’t end well,” Esmeralda added, in a slightly hard voice. Dakota shook her head shivering a bit at that and Sapphire could almost feel the gut-punch from way back when.
“Yeah I know” Tom seems to calm down a bit “Anyway what’s the plan”
“Well, we were gonna go through some maneuvers to try and dust everyone off on formation flying. Not sure now though.” Dakota replied.
“How do you flap your… wing?” Fengi had questioned.
“Can you go any faster?” Was Jackalope's contribution of course.
“I can’t and no not really” Tom clarified for them. Wait if he couldn’t flap his wing… thing, how would he climb or even maintain speed and altitude?
“Then how do you go up” Fengi continued
“I can’t” … well it answered the question of how at least.
“You mean to tell us that you, the master of lightning, fire, and death, can’t make something go up when flying!?” Jackalope added in sounding somewhere between incredulous and hysterical. Not exactly how Sapphire would have put it, but it got to the point.
“Uhm… yeah,” Tom replied.
There was more than one smack as they all collectively facepalmed at the stupidity of that. Then they all broke into various levels of snickering and laughing at the absurdity of that statement. For all their brilliance this was the best Tom’s people could do when not using huge machines? Now that was funny.
"Look if I could fly I would have done so before. This can glide and prevent you from going splat. It’s good!” He had tried to defend himself. That was a good point, though the ground was approaching rather quickly so it likely wouldn’t be a very long glide either.
“I wanna try and push him.” Fengi declared, sounding excited. “Is it okay if I hang on to you?”
“Sure just don’t get stuck in the strings” Sapphire’s attention turned to the dozens of little strings attaching what was clearly no ordinary backpack to the big cloth wing about him. It seemed so intricate. And delicate. Was he sure this was smart?
“Are you sure that is safe?” Sapphire had questioned.
“It’s built for my home gravity, we’re fine” Well if he said so. She still didn’t understand the notion that things were somehow heavier where he came from though.
Fengi circled around a few times trying to figure out how to go about this. before deciding she needed to be hugging him. Sapphire could see the problem if she went for a piggyback, she couldn't beat her wings to get the forwards, at least not much. Not to mention the mess of strings back there. She couldn't just push since he was going too slowly and she couldn’t go above him also on account of the strings. Sapphire thought about hanging onto Tom’s legs. That might work but Fengi had clearly made her decision.
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Oh, those faces had been so worth it, he had just wished there had been more of them there to gawk. Still, the keep wasn’t that tall and even with pulling the cord almost immediately he still didn't have much altitude. The low gravity did help a bit even if it also made him even slower. He was certain a mild headwind would see him standing still in the air. In fact, the parachute might just do the trick as a paraglider here… He would need to look into that at some point.
Fengi had decided to try and come aboard. He hadn’t really thought about that, but sure why not. They knew what they were doing up here far better than him after all. It took her a while to figure out how to go about it, he had almost thought she had given up when she came up beneath him hovering backwards.
It wasn’t the most graceful maneuver as the two of them slammed together, Fengi not quite having gotten the closing speed right. Still, she had managed to hang on, even if he now couldn’t really see where he was going now. She wrapped her legs around him and grabbed his shoulders.
“Let’s fly then” She stated seeming to not have a care in the world about how she was sitting. Was this the latest addition in their quest to try and make him uncomfortable he wondered as she began beating her wings backwards. The result was a bit like pulling a pendulum as they were pulled ahead of the parachute and upwards.
Of course, they came straight back down afterward having achieved little.
“Try again, have an idea” Tom went trying his best not to turn red. She beat her wings again and he loosened the guidelines as if trying to dive. The two sort of canceled out and they actually went forward.
“Hey, it’s working” She did it again and he compensated. It didn’t take much to maintain speed and altitude here and after just a few beats there were actually climbing. It was slow, but they were climbing.
There had been some more laughter from the circling dragonettes
“Hey, Tom how does it feel to be dragged through the sky?” Kokashi had joined in, the guard having come along for some reason.
“Careful now, still lack volunteers for swim practice” The guard had just responded with a chuckle as he continued circling. Once they had gained a bit of altitude Fengi stopped beating.
“And now for the fruits of my labor”, She declared as she folded up her wings looking around at the view, her neck craning around. The chute was actually flying better now that it was closer to the loading it was meant for. He had dropped his weights back on the platform, after all, expecting some sort of flying to occur.
“Not a bad view”
“No, it’s a good day for some flying, nice of you to join us”
“Well, sorta flying. Perhaps I should rig up a motor for this and actually fly.”
“You can do that?”
“Sure won’t go much faster though”
“That’s a shame you're more like a resting stop up here right now.”
“Tom the flying dragonette carrier” He let out a chuckle at that.” Not a bad idea”
“You sure? Sapphire said you are already working too hard.”
“Pfff, hard work never hurt anyone. Besides, it’s fun”
“Well, this is fun too, right?”
“I’ll give you that one, it’s great fun. I love flying, not so keen on falling though” She giggled a bit at that one.
The others eventually became tired of circling the slow-moving parachute and broke off beginning their little training exercise. Fengi gave him a bit more altitude.
“Gotta go, see ya” She went dropping off to join them just letting go and falling straight down twisting around midair and pulling out of the dive.
Damn, they are good at this stuff Tom thought to himself as he admired the spectacle. His own little private airshow. The altitude Fengi had gained him didn’t last forever though, eventually, Kokashi had come over
“Want another push or should I go get one of them for you?” the guard went cackling.
“Well, I would rather crash than accept one from you that’s for sure” Tom had replied. Kokashi just laughed harder at that and swooped back around.
“Well I guess you going down then”
“Yeah yeah, just you wait till I get my hands on a proper aircraft. I'll be the one running rings around you then”
“Can’t wait for that then. When will it be done?”
“If you're careful you just might live to see it old goat”
“Hey, I’m not old. I’m not even sixty!”
“Ha, old!” Tom just laughed out as he finally came down on the soft grass just outside the firing range. Kokashi had joined him down there landing rather more elegantly than Tom’s little jog, followed by trying to bunch up the parachute. He would have to repack it later.
“Why do you even have that thing?”
“Well, I thought it might be smart to bring it and I had it, so here it is. It’s meant for jumping from really high up, then you free fall most of the way and use this to prevent going splat.”
“Just for fun”
“Yeah, that and armies use them to land soldiers.”
“Huh” Kokashi looked a bit puzzled by that. Tom guessed it was rather hard for them to imagine how humans fought. Actually, Tom started to wonder if they would even have ground battles here?
“Anyway airshow to watch” Tom went sitting down using the parachute as a backrest. He had been brought along to relax so he might as well for a bit.
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First Previous Next
So what did you think of Tom pulling out another little party trick? Is he pushing too hard or should he be going even harder to try and get them ready?
We are unfortunately approaching another exam deadline, see the next week or two may be a little spotty with the uploads. But real life comes first after all. So until next time have an awesome day.

I see a lot of text posts in this sub of 'previews' for matches, but they are always very low effort and essentially just ask "What do you think?" without providing much information or analysis. Since I have quite a bit of free time at work right now, I thought I'd do a bit of stat-accumulation and put together a little preview of this weekend's match.
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Villa:

After a very entertaining 0-0 draw at home against Burnley, the side will make the daunting trek all of 3.5 miles to the Hawthorns to take on a West Brom side under new management.
Form: We have seemingly turned the corner on the poor run of form we suffered from the end of October to the start of December. After losing 4 of 5 (only beating a dismal Arsenal side), we showed extremely good spirit while earning a scrappy win at Wolves. We followed that up with a dominant performance at home against Burnley.
Burnley Match: Deano sent out a much changed side against Burnley. Not only did he bring in replacements for the suspended and injured lads, but he also "changed the shape a little bit today because of the way Burnley play." Yes, we only walked away with a single point, but the changes from Deano undoubtedly worked as we controlled the match and had ample opportunity to score. Although we couldn't finish any of those ~850 chances, it is 2 clean sheets in a row. As Deano said,

We had enough chances to win two games, maybe even three... my concern is when you're not getting chances. We look like a team unlikely to concede goals as well, when you do that you'll accumulate points. (Link to the interview)

Team News: This match also saw no new injuries (thank you Mr. Mee) or suspensions, so we will be at nearly full strength this weekend.
Douglas Luiz, Matty Cash, Bjorn Engels, Keinan Davis, and Ross Barkley should all be fit and eligible to start for the match this weekend. Trezeguet and Wes will likely be out beyond the end of the Christmas period.

West Brom:

West Brom have had a rough start to life back in the Premier League. Despite a stalwart defence against Man City earning the Baggies a point, they remain at the wrong end of the table and Slaven Bilić faced the axe on Wednesday. The managerial merry-go-round spun Big Sam into the spotlight once more - his first job since he was let go by Everton in 2018.
Form: West Brom have earned 4 points in their past 5 matches, including their first win of the season against Sheffield United and the hard fought draw against City. That first (and only) win this year came against a winless, bottom of the table, Blades side who have lost 12 of 13 matches this year. Although they have managed a few impressive performances and results this year, they have only earned 2 points from sides outside the bottom 5 this year (3-3 Chelsea & 1-1 City).
City Match: West Brom were once again without Matheus Pereira in the side, as he sat out the second match of his 3 match ban following his dismissal against Palace. The Baggies were very content to play for a draw, having just over 20% possession and only 1 single shot on target. Only 15% of the match took place in City's defensive third...
Team News: Pereira will miss his 3rd and final game of his ban following his violent conduct charge. Kyle Bartley could also miss the match after being ruled out of the Newcastle and Man City matches. Conor Townsend and Hal Robson-Kanu will both be out until the end of December.

Sam Allardyce

Big Sam was sacked from Everton, despite guiding the Toffees to a top half finish, mostly through the clamouring of fans about the boring style which had been instilled in the side. He has a phenomenal record of saving sides from relegation, having never been relegated himself from the top division.
Big Sam's Record as a new manager in the top flight (and with England):

Team	Opponent	Score	Year
Everton	Huddersfield	2-0	2017
Crystal Palace	Watford	1-1	2016
England	Slovakia	1-0	2016
Sunderland	West Brom	0-1	2015
Blackburn	Stoke	3-0	2008
Newcastle	Bolton	3-1	2007
Total	4-1-1	10-3

STATS

1. Consistency in Minutes
   West Brom have changed their side up many times this season - only 3 players (Johnstone, Ajayi and Furlong) have played more than 75% of minutes this year. The 4th player with the most minutes is Conor Gallagher with 800 minutes (68% of available minutes).
   Villa have been the opposite. NINE players have more minutes than Conor Gallagher in 2 fewer matches. Even Trezeguet, with 720 minutes, has a higher percentage of minutes played (73%). Only Villa's last spot (barring injury and suspension) has been changing, as Barkley had not come into the side until a few matches into the year.
   
2. Style of Play
   As opposed to the match against Burnley, West Brom probably won't sit back and play for a draw. They actually have a fairly decent attacking style - in fact, it matches our own style of play pretty closely. Both sides play a similar range of passing and at similar rates, West Brom are just a touch worse than us at it.
   

   Team	Total	Long Ball %	Short Acc.	Long Acc.
   Villa	389.5	15.5%	83.9%	44.3%
   West Brom	381.6	15.1%	82.8%	42.9%

3. Where will the ball be?
   Looking at the average area of play for both sides this season, they match up quite well:
   

   Team	Off.	Mid.	Def.
   Villa	33%	41%	26%
   WBA	24%	45%	31%

   We may see a similar story this weekend.
   
4. History
   Outside of the traditional top 5 clubs, West Brom do not have a worse record against any side (5+ matches played).
   Villa lead this matchup across all of history with 25 wins to the Baggies' 14, while there have been 17 draws as well. In the Premier League era, Villa lead with 10 wins, 10 draws and 5 losses.
   
5. Open play - wide open
   No team has conceded more goals, or more from open play this year than the Baggies. They also have only scored fewer goals from open play than 17 teams - only Sheffield United and Burnley are worse.
   While West Brom are conceding 2 goals per game, Villa are scoring 1.9 per game. Villa concede 1.18 goals per game, West Brom score 0.77 per game.
   

So what are your predictions, concerns, thoughts and bets for the match this weekend? How will Deano set the side up, and will Barkley be fit enough to start?